Pre-tourney Rankings
Fresno St.
Mountain West
2015-16
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.1#102
Expected Predictive Rating+7.9#78
Pace71.7#133
Improvement+2.7#71

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#122
First Shot+0.9#149
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#96
Layup/Dunks+0.3#148
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#66
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#264
Freethrows+1.1#102
Improvement+2.5#64

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#95
First Shot+2.5#95
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#116
Layups/Dunks+2.1#93
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#54
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#190
Freethrows-1.2#244
Improvement+0.2#171
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 12.7 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round15.1% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen3.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.3% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 13 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2015 129   Pepperdine W 69-66 70%     1 - 0 +2.5 -12.1 +14.2
  Nov 16, 2015 330   Lamar W 80-72 96%     2 - 0 -7.4 -8.1 +0.0
  Nov 19, 2015 202   San Francisco W 78-71 84%     3 - 0 +1.5 -4.4 +5.6
  Nov 22, 2015 277   @ Rice W 82-65 82%     4 - 0 +12.4 +2.1 +10.3
  Nov 27, 2015 349   Delaware St. W 80-59 98%     5 - 0 +1.2 +3.8 -1.7
  Nov 30, 2015 10   @ Oregon L 73-78 9%     5 - 1 +14.9 -2.0 +17.6
  Dec 05, 2015 204   @ Cal Poly L 65-77 68%     5 - 2 -11.9 -5.9 -6.9
  Dec 09, 2015 12   @ Arizona L 72-85 10%     5 - 3 +6.3 +4.9 +1.8
  Dec 12, 2015 218   Pacific W 71-52 86%     6 - 3 +12.6 -3.1 +15.9
  Dec 16, 2015 110   Cal St. Bakersfield W 76-68 65%     7 - 3 +9.0 +8.8 +0.4
  Dec 20, 2015 78   Evansville L 77-85 54%     7 - 4 -3.9 +0.8 -4.0
  Dec 30, 2015 115   @ UNLV W 69-66 45%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +9.3 -0.9 +10.1
  Jan 02, 2016 116   New Mexico L 62-77 68%     8 - 5 1 - 1 -14.7 -17.7 +4.3
  Jan 06, 2016 141   Nevada W 85-63 73%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +20.8 +11.9 +7.7
  Jan 09, 2016 94   @ Boise St. L 70-81 36%     9 - 6 2 - 2 -2.2 +4.6 -7.4
  Jan 16, 2016 248   San Jose St. W 81-74 88%     10 - 6 3 - 2 -1.0 +6.8 -7.8
  Jan 19, 2016 53   @ San Diego St. L 67-73 OT 23%     10 - 7 3 - 3 +6.7 +2.5 +4.5
  Jan 23, 2016 237   @ Air Force W 56-55 74%     11 - 7 4 - 3 -0.7 -14.3 +13.6
  Jan 26, 2016 164   Wyoming W 71-60 79%     12 - 7 5 - 3 +7.8 +1.1 +7.8
  Feb 03, 2016 248   @ San Jose St. L 53-65 75%     12 - 8 5 - 4 -14.1 -13.8 -1.2
  Feb 06, 2016 115   UNLV W 111-104 2OT 67%     13 - 8 6 - 4 +7.5 +10.3 -4.8
  Feb 10, 2016 53   San Diego St. W 58-57 43%     14 - 8 7 - 4 +7.8 -5.0 +12.9
  Feb 13, 2016 141   @ Nevada L 72-77 OT 52%     14 - 9 7 - 5 -0.3 -0.5 +0.7
  Feb 17, 2016 164   @ Wyoming W 79-75 60%     15 - 9 8 - 5 +6.6 +10.1 -3.3
  Feb 20, 2016 133   Utah St. W 75-68 71%     16 - 9 9 - 5 +6.3 -1.3 +7.6
  Feb 24, 2016 237   Air Force W 64-63 88%     17 - 9 10 - 5 -6.5 -7.3 +0.9
  Feb 27, 2016 116   @ New Mexico W 92-82 46%     18 - 9 11 - 5 +16.1 +13.0 +2.3
  Mar 02, 2016 142   Colorado St. W 87-73 74%     19 - 9 12 - 5 +12.5 +4.6 +7.2
  Mar 05, 2016 133   @ Utah St. W 86-85 50%     20 - 9 13 - 5 +6.2 +5.9 +0.1
  Mar 10, 2016 115   @ UNLV W 95-82 45%     21 - 9 +19.3 +17.2 +0.7
  Mar 11, 2016 142   Colorado St. W 64-56 64%     22 - 9 +9.4 -10.7 +20.3
  Mar 12, 2016 53   San Diego St. W 68-63 32%     23 - 9 +14.8 +6.1 +8.8
Projected Record 23.0 - 9.0 13.0 - 5.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 12.7 0.0 2.9 34.0 57.1 6.0
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 2.9 34.0 57.1 6.0